Trump Watch 20180731

Today's Episode:  Trade War Collateral Damage!

So, the Trump administration has set aside $12 billion for farmers who are being affected by the trade war, but they aren't the only ones being impacted by the situation.  The question then becomes who else will the administration add to its new welfare rolls?
Now overall the economy does remain strong (while government borrowing is back to great recession levels), the stories of companies that are suffering because of the trade war are growing in number.  That shouldn't be much of  a surprise, and the farmer welfare program is a sign of the government picking specific groups to help out (the old picking winners and losers problem).

But here's a thought.  With the lack of specifics that surround the idea of the current trade situation, and what the goals are, what would happen if Trump managed to arrange for some high profile trade summit, have a closed door meeting, and then go to the a status quo ante bellum?  Maybe shuffle a few winners and losers for American industries, so it's not too transparent, and then declare that he's gotten a great new deal?  That he has managed the art of the deal so well, that things are great?

In the short term though, the question is going to be whether any other groups get some sort of bailout money, and if they do, who will they be?  And if the bailouts expand, will more attention get drawn to government borrowing?

My guess is that if the trade war does go on for the next few months, there will be more federal welfare recipients in the name of trade war collateral damage.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180730

Today's episode: Trump vs. Collusion

Lawyer speak can be hard to decipher sometimes, since lawyer's will often try to interpret words to fit a narrative that they want to be perceived as the "truth," or at least a reasonable explanation of existing evidence to exonerate their client.  So the word of the day now is "Collusion."  The quote I have seen isn't all that clear:

"Four months, they're not going to be colluding with Russia, which I don't even know if that's a crime, colluding about Russians," Giuliani, a former federal prosecutor, continued. "You start analyzing the crime -- the hacking is the crime. ... The President didn't hack."

Now there is more to the Mueller investigation than collusion, not that this is being mentioned much.  And the whole "collusion" word has been mentioned before.  Even James Comey has previously explained that collusion "is not actually a thing that exists under the federal laws of the United States."  But there are crimes that do exist that relate to assisting or getting some sort of gain from criminal endeavors against the U.S.  Things like getting foreign money would be a clear example.  Getting foreign intelligence would likely fit into the same category.

But the goal here is to get a story out there to exonerate Trump from the investigation in general, and collusion issues in particular.  Since the whole "collusion" term is kind of murky, and not really a legal term, it makes for a good target.  It's going to be interesting when Mueller actually lays out ihs case though, especially seeing as Trump is Mueller's boss's boss.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180729

Today's Episode:  Trump wants his wall!

Trumph apparently had a lot to tweet about this morning.    Apparently he woke up in a mood, and decided to let the American People know several things, one of which was:

I would be willing to “shut down” government if the Democrats do not give us the votes for Border Security, which includes the Wall! Must get rid of Lottery, Catch & Release etc. and finally go to system of Immigration based on MERIT! We need great people coming into our Country!


Trump has mentioned the shutdown threat before, and he may be getting antsy since the midterms may not work out very well for the Republicans.  Of course, a government shutdown may not help the Republicans in the midterms, and certainly the party doesn't seem to think that a shutdown would help them in the midterms.
Now there is a sort of "boy who cried wolf" sense on this, seeing as he has threatened this before. Still, since he is the POTUS, it can't be completely ignored.  But it seems unlikely that the Republicans are willing to have that kind of a fight before the elections. Of course, it could just be bombast to bring attention to the matter, his "art of the deal."  His tactics however don't seem to have very much subtlety to them.

I'd say the odds of a shutdown actually happening are in the neighborhood of 20%.  Not very likely, but certainly not impossible.  The odds of Trump getting the wall funded are much lower, maybe 5%..  I suspect that this particular story isn't going to have much in the way of legs for now, but it is an ongoing on, and I'm sure we'll hear more about the wall and immigration in general from Trump soon.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180728

Today's Episode:  The Court ordered it, now what?

So, the deadline for immigrant child/parent reunification has come and gone, and the report is that over Seven Hundred children are still in government custody, and separated from their parents.  That number represents about a third of the total number of children that were covered by the court order.  In some of those cases, the government contends that the children should not have been reunified because of criminal histories of the parents, in other cases the government says that the parents declined reunification, and in many more it turns out that the parents had been deported, and the government was unable to locate said parents.

The judge in the case, Dana Sabraw, seems to be reasonably satisfied though, saying that:

"For class members who are eligible, it appears that when we meet on this issue again on Friday that reunification will have been completed on time, which has to be highlighted and the government has to be commended for its efforts in that regard."

Sabraw did add that "Some of this information is unpleasant.  It's the reality of the case, it's the reality of a policy that was in place that resulted in large numbers of families being separated without forethought as to reunification and keeping track of people.  And that the fallout we're seeing.  There may be 463, there may be more, it's not certain, but it appears there's a large number of parents who are unaccounted for or who may have been removed without their child."

And so it seems that the judge is saying that bad things happened, things that should have been avoided.  Further efforts will be made to try to address the situation that still exists, but as far as I can tell, no one is talking about any sort of accountability or punishment for anyone who has responsibility for those bad and avoidable consequences.  After all, the people that did those things work for the government.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180727

Today's Episode:  The return of remains.

So much going on in Trumpland, it's always hard to pick just one thing.  But the story of the human remains being returned by North Korea was a rare bit of positive news regarding Trump and his policies that I felt it bore mention, since I am generally pointing out purely negative stories about Trump and his policies.

So, while final identification needs to be done with regards to the remains that were received, and there is a remote chance that they aren't completely what they have been represented as being (which is why the U.S. does further analysis), this is a positive development in the North Korea Saga.  The road map remains murky, but the return of the remains of Soldier's lost in North Korea was a clear and specific step that came out of the summit.  Of course, it' pretty short of the 200 sets of remains that Trump said had already been returned (this batch consists of 55 sets of remains).

Trump's bombast, and overselling is a problem for people that are skeptical (or actively hostile) of his successes.  Over promising can sound good I guess, but your call if you think that it   I have noted that it is a common technique for salesmen.  If he had set more realistic expectations of his North Korea summit, this could have been a bigger victory for his policy in my eyes, but, getting this much is a good thing.  We'll see how it goes from here, but Trump's impatience may undo progress.  Or he may manage to get more progress over time.  We'll see.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180726

Today's Episode"  Trump knows what the Russians are planning!


Trump tweets, and the world listens.  Now that's not a shock, seeing as he is the POTUS, but seeing as he does it so often, and he doesn't have to bother with any sort of follow up to explain, or establish any credible evidence for his tweets, not to mention that there are so many other things going on with regards to the man and his administration, it's probably not really possible to keep up with it all.  This particular commentary is from a tweet two days ago (July 24th).

“I’m very concerned that Russia will be fighting very hard to have an impact on the upcoming Election. Based on the fact that no President has been tougher on Russia than me, they will be pushing very hard for the Democrats. They definitely don’t want Trump!”

Now, for the record, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he wanted Trump to win in 2016 during their joint news conference in Helsinki.  When the met, the only other American there was a translator, and what was discussed remains unclear.  There have been no public intelligence agencies going on record indicating that the Russians seek to assist the Democrats in this election cycle.

So, is Trump revealing information he has gleaned from Putin?  Or from his briefings from American Intelligence sources?  Or is he seeking to deflect criticism of his perceived "friendliness" with Russia, and trying to improve Republican turnout during the midterm elections?  Of course it could be some combination of the two, or even some other option that I have failed to consider here.

Whatever it is, I tend to suspect that this isn't going to have a lot of follow up.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180725

Today's Episode:  Trade Wars are easy, but China is "vicious."

So, the Trade War goes on, and while in the larger scheme of things, it is probably more of a skirmish than a full scale war, Trump's rhetoric has been rather bellicose, without being terribly detailed.  At this point, U.S. farmers have been targeted with retaliatory tariffs, which is a pretty calculated move by China, bringing the pain of the battle to Trump's supporters in particular.  In an effort to mitigate that pain, and I guess show some solidarity, Trump is planning to invoke a "Great Depression-era program to help U.S. farmers weather the growing trade war."  Some have already called this "welfare," and it's not very clear how effective such a program will be.  There has been criticism of the plan to that effect already from Republican Senators.  Trump's previous assertion that "Trade Wars are easy," looks like it's going to be tested.
One thing that I haven't seen reported is the specifics that Trump is trying to address, much less the position of adversaries on the matter.  I have heard comments that China doesn't respect American Intellectual Property rights sufficiently, although again, just what Trump is trying to accomplish with his trade war has not been clarified very well.  From what I can tell, he hasn't gotten a lot of support for his trade war position in general, but that doesn't seem to have deterred his enthusiasm for the prospect.  I don't see how his plays out, but I rather suspect that it will get worse before it gets better.  Trump does like to project a "strong man" image, and I think that is part of what is going on here, but in this case there isn't a lot of fiery tweet rhetoric, and the push back has been pretty muted.  Until Fox and Friends start to consider his trade policies a bad idea (and it's difficult to do that, since the policy is so devoid of specifics), I expect he will keep pushing until something breaks.  Me probably believes it will be China that caves in/breaks, but if it's not, the question is how much pain can they inflict, and how much is Trump, and his supporters, are willing to accept.  It seems pretty clear that China has something of an understanding of the political calculus here, and if Trump supporters take the brunt of the pain, Trump himself is weakened politically in the longer term.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180724

Today's Episode:  A big Win for Trump, or at least it's a little win.

I don't know how sympathetic to Trump Business Insider is, but an article by Alex Lockie was titled "North Korea is dismantling a key missile testing site - and it's a big win for Trump."
The meat of the article came down to evidence that a missile launching facility looks like it is being dismantled by North Korea.  While the work is just starting, the fact that it has begun at all is a sign of progress.  I'm not sure that it is a "Big Win for Trump" though.  The expectations and process remain unclear and at the very least not public knowledge.  The only publicly declared step remains
unfulfilled (the return of human remains of U.S. soldiers), but the dismantling of this particularly facility is a positive development.  It's also interesting to note that Trump himself isn't talking about it, while he had no compunction about declaring the return of American Soldier's remains.  Trump is talking about how Russia will influence the elections in the mid terms and support Democrats, and talking about setting up a farm aid program to offset some of the effects on farmers of his trade policy choices and repercussions.

I would say that this development in North Korea is a small win, and could lead to a real win for Trump, but it may not be high profile enough for Trump to try and promote.  We'll see how it plays out.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180723

Another Day, another brouhaha.

So, apparently Trump is now considering revoking the security clearance of people who no longer work directly for intelligence agencies because they have been critical of Trump in some way or another (mainly with regards to Russia it seems).  Some of the people named have had their security clearance already removed (for example, James Comey lost his Security Clearance when he was fired from the FBI, which is standard procedure in such cases).  Other people do have an ongoing active Security Clearance so that they can be brought in to advise on situations where their expertise may be valuable since they had experience with specific matters during a previous administration.
Part of Trump's justification for such a move (not that he has taken it) is that the targets have "politicized" information, which is an interesting commentary, since Trump has continually called the Mueller investigation a politically motivated witch hunt.
At this point it seems to me that this may just be another distraction balloon, to mitigate criticism of his summit with Putin, and the follow up from that.  It's hard to say though, because it could just be more of Trump's tirade style, which might look like calculation, rather than just a general predilection for lashing out without thinking much about the practicalities of such decisions.

I expect this topic to disappear in a week or less, without any actual action being taken to revoke security clearances, but it is possible that some of his critics may have that happen if they continue to criticize Trump.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180722

Today's Episode:  It proves his innocence!  If it didn't, would he say that?

Trump uses Twitter a lot, and he wrote, "Looking more and more like the Trump Campaign for President was illegally being spied up (surveillance) for the political gain of Crooked Hillary Clinton and the DNC."  He didn't really explain why that was the case as far as I could tell.  Apparently he believes that the F.B.I. misled the courts when they got permission to place Carter Page under surveillance.
Of course, details don't appear to be Trump's strong suit.  He makes things up, and spins things at the time he speaks, and presumably when he tweets, and while that keeps him in touch with his devotees, it also adds to a record of public statements that are attributable to him.  Usually they seem to be declarative, but unsubstantiated, so it's tricky to say that they are lies.  But he also doesn't get held terribly responsible for his commentaries in the long run.  His Twitter Feed does have a sort of 1984 propaganda/ministry of truth vibe to it, although it is voluntary to receive the broadcasts, and there are "enemies of the state," that do monitor it, and report on their general veracity, if you are a Trump Supporter you can decide which set of "facts" you want to ascribe to.  "Alternative facts" is a very Orwellian line that seems to be kind of embraced by the Trump communications team.  He is prolific though, preaching to his peeps regularly, reminding them that he is there for them, and that he is under attack by a vast Hillary loving conspiracy.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180721

Today's Episode:  "Whatever it takes, it takes."

Well, at least Trump KNOWS that North Korea is basically ignoring any steps towards denuclearization.  Apparently he even realizes now that they haven't even turned over any human remains of soldiers yet.  His comment regarding the process when speaking to CBS this week was "I'm in no real rush.  I mean, whatever it takes, it takes."  I guess he was tired of winning so much.
As it turns out, negotiations with North Korea have essentially been the North Koreans wasting the American's time, to the point of literally leaving an American negotiator waiting for a scheduled meeting for three hours before canceling said meeting.
What I am wondering now is whether Trump really believed he had manages a breakthrough with North Korea because he had the summit.  Certainly other Presidents had tried to get North Korea to change their nuclear policy, and failed, although none had met with a North Korean leader, going that "extra step," to bring their personal charisma into the equation on a one on one basis.  Trump may have honestly believed that such a step would be the deciding factor.  It's the sort of thing a businessman might believe, and his declarations after the meeting seem to indicate that he believed that the meeting was successful, and that real action was immediately forthcoming.
The real question now is just how long is "whatever it takes?"  When does Trump admit that North Korea isn't going to change their policy, and when he admits that, what will he do?

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180720

Today's Episode:  The Cohen Tapes

Michael Cohen was Donald Trump's lawyer, and was involved in paying off/silencing women who have claimed to have had affairs with Trump in the past.  Back on April 9th, it was reported that the FBI had gone to David Cohen's office and seized records, including tape recordings, as part of Robert Mueller's investigation.  Given that Cohen was one of Trump's primary lawyers (reportedly his main personal lawyer), the question of attorney/client privilege regarding records has been an issue, but that privilege is not complete, despite what popular opinion may be.
It is now being reported that there exists a tape where Cohen discusses a payment to Karen McDougal, a former Playboy model/playmate and playmate of the year.  Said payment to ensure reports of an affair were not reported during the election campaign.  The tapes are being reported as having been "secretly recorded," although it's really not clear if Trump himself was or was not aware of the practice, or the particular recording.  Just what other tapes may exist with regards to Trump, or what other records and documentation may exist is an open question.  It's not terribly clear how this information went public, but Rudy Giuliani isn't disputing their existence, but rather trying to spin the information on the tape as being exculpatory of any wrongdoing on the part of Trump.
I find myself wondering how this sort of information gets out, and whether it is part of a larger strategy.  It seems difficult to think otherwise, and it does leave open the question as to whether more important information is being left out of the public eye, to be revealed at a more opportune, or dramatic time.  It is rather fascinating to watch.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship
• Stormy Daniels Lawsuit

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180719

Today's Episode:  Trump Vs. The Fed!

One of the things that Trump has going for his administration is that the economic recovery has continued from the Obama era.  Reasonable or not, American Presidents get credit or blame for the economy during their administration.  I do believe that Trump's policies have continued to make for a strong stock market, and kept the labor market strong.  With that said, the economic situation has been strong for some time, and given that there is a history or boom and bust for economic cycles, there is an element of history that Trump should be concerned with.  One of the things that can heavily impact the financial landscape is interest rates, and traditionally higher interest rates will compete with securities markets for people to place their money.
The Federal Reserve is meant to be free of political influence (inasmuch as that is possible), and so legislators are expected to keep their comments, particularly criticisms, of their choices to a minimum.  Their "independence" is meant to ensure that they take their actions free of political motivations.  When the POTUS does make some commentary on the Federal Reserve's actions, it does have political overtones.
Interestingly enough, part of Trump's explanations for his commentary was:
"Now I'm just saying the same thing that I would have said as a private citizen," he said.  "So somebody would say, 'Oh, maybe you shouldn't say that as president.  I couldn't care less what they say, because my views haven't changed."
That statement by itself shows that he is aware that his words are POTUS carry more weight and implications than his word as a private citizen, but he doesn't really care about that distinction.
It is an interesting position, but it does bring into question whether such an attitude is really a good one for the POTUS...
It can also be seen as Trump laying the groundwork for setting up a defense in the event that the economy does take a negative turn.  It seems unlikely that he would want to take credit for a poor economy during his tenure, even if he is quite eager to take credit for a good economy so far.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180718

Today's Episode:  When I said that, I meant to say the opposite...

The post Putin Press conference still has legs, but I did note an article regarding progress with North Korea negotiations (or a lack thereof).  So, back on June 20th, at a speech in Duluth, Minnesota, Trump declared, "We got back our great fallen heroes, the remains sent back today, already 200 got sent back."

According to a statement by Mike Pompeo (Secretary of State) on July 17th, 2018 "I think in the next couple of weeks we'll have the first remains returned, that's the commitment, so progress is certainly being made there."  So, it appears that there have been zero human remains returned to the United States from North Korea since Trump's meeting with Kim Jong Un.

It is interesting to wonder about how Trump's mind processes this stuff.  I suspect he has forgotten that he made that particular statement in Duluth.  And the people that heard that in Duluth probably haven't heard any follow up, and so trust and believe what they heard from Trump.

Trump is certainly re-defining what it means to be "Presidential," but not in a good way.

• Stormy Daniels
• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180717

Today's Episode:  So, that thing I said, I meant the opposite...

There was a lot of criticism over the things that Trump said at his press conference with Putin after their meeting.  Apparently his Chief of Staff John Kelly advocated for Republican lawmakers to denounce Trump's commentary.  By the end of the day, Trump came out and sought to clarify his remarks, claiming that he did accept intelligence reports that found that there had been Russian meddling with the 2018 election cycle, saying that "I would like to clarify, in a key sentence in my remarks, I said the word 'would' instead of 'wouldn't'.  The sentence should have been 'I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be Russia.'"  Watching the video of the conference, and based on tone of voice, this "clarification" is rather suspect, but who really pays attention to these things?  I'm rather wondering what goes on in Trump's mind here though.  And of course, how bad do things have to get before his policies or competence are seen as egregious enough to get any Republicans to call for impeachment?
On a related note, in the UK a betting agency called "Paddy Power" has reported that the betting has driven the odds on impeachment of Trump have moved down to 2/1 from 8/1, and the odds on a bet for an impeachment to happen this year have moved from 12/1 to 8/1.
I wonder where John Kelly thinks the line is for moving toward impeachment is.

• Stormy Daniels
• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180716

Today's Episode:  Traitor, traitor, who is the traitor?

So, after Trump met with Putin privately, Trump left the meeting and declared that he believed Putin's denial of election meddling, rather than accept the reports of the American Intelligence agencies.  Apparently any reports that imply that his election may have less legitimacy is part of "deep state conspiracies," and American Intelligence agencies are less credible to Trump than Putin's claims.  After all, if Putin were lying about that sort of thing, Trump would be able to know based on his shrewd understanding of other people, and I guess that's also how he knows that there is a deep state conspiracy trying to undermine his presidency.

This leaves an interesting question for Americans, and possibly more importantly intelligence community operatives.  They have been told that the POTUS does not have confidence in their findings.  That POTUS takes the word of the leader of the foreign government that the say engaged in election disruption over theirs.  At this point, how can they keep their job?  Hasn't the POTUS essentially declared that they are at best incompetent, and at worst engaging in a conspiracy to undermine the POTUS, and improved relationships with an important foreign power?

There is a lot of damage being done here, one way or another, and maybe that's what is needed.  But if Trump, and the Republican Party do believe that there is this vast state conspiracy in play, they are should be getting rid of those involved in such a conspiracy.  If, on the other hand, they believe that Trump is trying to degrade American intelligence agencies, are they going to stand by and allow that to happen?  Or maybe they believe something less "active," but still deleterious to American interests, the question is just where is the line before they have to seriously look at impeachment proceedings?

• Stormy Daniels
• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018