Traffic

I suspect that Los Angeles Traffic is reflective of traffic throughout the United Stats (when it comes to other countries the situation is rather different for different reasons).  The introduction of Lyft and Uber services, as well as Door Dash, and other "gig" delivery services have turned traffic for the 9-5 types into a congealing mass of annoyance.  Population Density has also increased, and the sheer number or cars on the road or owned go up with that.  For every single family dwelling or two converted into multi-unit housing there is a corresponding increase in vehicle density.  And of course, no new roads are being built.  Elon Musk's Boring Company remains a pretty speculative solution, and even if it were to start today, it would likely take years, or decades to make an impact.  So, what happens is that you get a different sort of class divide again where the middle gets squeezed.  Those that have the wherewithal to avoid driving, and take advantage of newer driving services for their transportation needs shift the driving burden to those who scrabble to get by with the meager income provided by internet cabs and delivery services.  Just where the income level is where that becomes an attractive option probably varies, but the need to travel doesn't diminish.  However, if you can shift the burden of the annoyance that goes along with driving, you get more driving activity.  The fact that people use theses sort of Door Dash delivery services to deliver fast food cuisine, makes it seem likely that the income threshold may not be that high.  Someone may not want to hassle with the drive to their local fast food restaurant, but if someone is willing to take on that burden for a sufficiently low cost, then you get another car on the road.  Now there is an argument that this is still the same number of cars, which is technically true, but it yields an increase traffic.  Here's how it works.

Lets say a customer wants his fast food fix, and is willing to drive.  The drive is 3 miles round trip.

Instead, said customer will have a deliveryperson go and get their order for them and deliver it.  The round trip to the house is still 3 miles of course, BUT there is additional mileage for the driver who is making the delivery.  Even if it is only 0.5 miles additional (the delivery person is in the area after all, but half a mile isn't all that far), that is a 16% increase in miles driven on the roads.  That does not take into account the distance the driver will add to return to wherever their home is (to be fair, that should be distributed by the number of deliveries being made).  As this gets multiplied out, it should become clear that there are more cars on the road, and this is more likely to happen in denser population areas, since there will be more people that want to take advantage of such services.

Self driving cars will change this dynamic again, and hopefully for the better.  Odds are that we will see self driving cars with drones for the door delivery where possible.  That may not happen, particularly if a drone falls on top of someone's head early on, but if you want to deliver to an apartment building, they will either still need a person to go upstairs, or a drone will need access via a window.  Nearby trees could make certain areas problematic for that, so don't be surprised if there are "No drone delivery" zones.  The other option would be for drones to be curbside delivery, which is still better than you having to hassle with traffic.  But if you do have to use the roads, you will be competing for road space with all the other 9-5ers as well as the increased delivery services.  Your commute isn't going to get any better, at least not any time soon.

Welcome to the future...

Trump Watch 20180812 - Trump V Charlottesville Anniversary

Today's Episode:  Charlottesville Anniversary

With a "Unite the Right 2" rally basically fizzling out in DC, with only a few dozen supporters of the event showing up, Trump (and the media for the most part) were able to basically ignore the anniversary, as it hasn't gotten a critical mass nationally to get the topic of racism in America to get much in the way of high profile attention or protests.  Trump himself has put out rather tepid "all racism is bad" tweets, and left it at that, and while a variety of commentators (and former assistant Omarossa, of The Apprentice fame) have come out and said that Trump himself is a racist, that sort of accusation isn't really new, and seems unlikely to change any minds at this point.
For his part, Trump was at one of his golf courses in Bedminster, New Jersey, hosting a photo op for a group of supporters known as "Bikers for Trump."  The few images I did see of the group and Trump was devoid of POC as far as I could tell.
It does seem that the boldness of the White Supremacist crowd has left them, and Trump seems able to avoid the issue of late.  It will be easier for him to do so if is alt-right type supporters stay in the shadows.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship
• Racism

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180811 - North Korea wants Peace now!

Todasy's Episode:  North Korean Demands!

So, at this stage of the North Korean agreement, North Korea's state-run newspaper (Rodong Sinmun) has published a statement/article explaining that North Koreas wants peace treaty talks before detailing a list of its nuclear weapons.  Apparently it appears that North Korea wants to have a peace treaty with the United States in place prior to disclosing information about its weapons.  Honestly, on the face of it, it seems pretty reasonable for a state that is at war with another state to want a peace treaty before revealing its military secrets.  At a political level, at least for the United States, that sort of first step is a pretty big one, since it goes a long way towards removing any military option for denuclearizing North Korea.  Of course, a detailed list of their nuclear capabilities would go a long way towards making a first strike option more viable for the United States if a hot war began.

Trump hasn't admitted to the difficulties going on with North Korea, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo continues to say that there is "progress," (whatever that means), but it leaves Trump himself in something of a dilemma, and he has been pretty silent about any problems.

Basically, if Trump admits that his negotiations were a failure, he may have trouble with his base, who apparently either don't see other media reports about the situation, or if they do, they consider such reports "fake news."  Democrats could use the issue to pan him, and it would probably wind up causing at least some Republican politicians to criticize him over the failure.

I expect that even if Trump were to admit to the failure, some of his true believers would come up with some sort of excuse for the statement, but the first step will ave to be Trump admitting that it did fail.  That will probably happen when North Korea takes some new high profile belligerent action (firing another missile or some such), but until then I expect Trump to keep quiet.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180810 - Sessions v Contempt Threat

Today's Episode - Turn that plane around!

So, it turns out that two plaintiffs in an asylum case were on a plane to El Salvador and when the judge in the case (Judge Emmet G. Sullivan) learned that was the case, he ordered the government to "turn that plane around."  Additionally, he added that he would start holding officials in contempt of court if the plaintiffs weren't returned immediately, and that he would start with the attorney general.

The government didn't actually turn the plane around, but rather landed, de-planed the rest of their human cargo (consisting of other border crossers who were processed for deportation), kept the two plaintiffs on board, and flew back to the U.S.  It isn't clear just how feasible just "turning around" would have been at the time the judge made his demand.

So far though, no contempt charges have not been filed against anyone in the administration.  Just how far things would have to go for such a charge to be filed remains unclear.  And of course, the question of how much of a deterrent a threat of a contempt of court charge holds is subject to debate as well, BUT the plaintiffs were returned, so there is some deterrent value in such a threat.

Still, I'm betting that Jeff Sessions isn't very worried about this.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180809 - Space Force!

Today's Episode: Space Force 2020!

Putting aside the logistics and cost of a "separate but equal" branch of the military (and for that matter, the rather odd choice of phrasing for it, given the generally negative historical context of the term "separate but equal,") there is the issue of how it is being presented.   From the way I see it being spoken about, it comes across as a sort of call to arms to be the "best" and while not clearly a call to be the most belligerent, it seems close to that.

"Now the time has come to write the next great chapter in the history of our armed forces, to prepare for the next battlefield where America's best and bravest will be called to deter and defeat a new generation of threats to our people, to our nation," said Pence. "The time has come to establish the United States Space Force."

I accept that a "space force" may be prudent, or at least some specific planning and organization that is optimized for the intricacies of orbital and electronic defense and offense.  Whether a new military branch, or a subset of existing branch (or branches) would be the best way to manage such a thing seems pretty open to debate, but a POTUS is the Commander in Chief, and while they can't unilaterally create a new military branch, they do have an understandably large influence on such a thing.   I suspect that a part of it appeals to Trump's ego as well, as the establishment of a new armed services branch during his tenure would be a legacy issue that would be quite unlikely to be done if he achieves it.

The deeper issue is that it seems to be part of a policy of belligerence, rather than one rooted in reality with a hope for something better.  The militarization of space my be necessary, but I don't believe it should be lauded.  It is a failure of diplomacy and any sort of march of progress towards peace.  If it were to be approached as such, with at least the hope that it could be avoided should other world powers agree, I would have a better feeling about the sales pitch.  Of course, maybe I'm naive in that regard.  It might be more reasonable, and possibly more effective to take a belligerent stance.  And IF militarization of space is inevitable, I would feel better if the U.S. had superiority, not that I think the U.S. is necessarily really "better," than other potential "space military" powers, but more because I believe that it is at least safer to be the bully than the bullied (although to be fair, I do believe that we are somewhat better overall than China when it comes to such things, but I admit that I am clearly biased based on my upbringing when it comes to that issue).

Seriously though, I suspect that the current administration didn't even consider some means of keeping space demilitarized.  And if previous administrations tried to keep space that way, they didn't do much to advertise that position.

And so here we are.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180808 - The Parade is marching on!

Today's Episode -  The Parade is on!


I don't totally get the idea of a military parade in Washington, but it doesn't really offend me.  I can see where people see it as a sort of chest-beating exercise, but there are also people that like the idea of such things.  The general reporting on the subject seems to skew towards a negative assessment of the parade, but apparently the funding for such a parade is being green lit, so we'll see how it goes.

There hasn't been a lot of specific Trump statements made recently that are getting much notice, so it's a good time to review some of the items on the general list, and the Parade is one of them.  It is interesting that the idea has gotten to this stage, so if there is real resistance to it, that resistance doesn't seem to be very strong.  At this point, it seems like we will be seeing some sort of parade in Washington (although it seems unlikely that we will get to see tanks rolling down the streets).

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180807 - Trump V Legal Immigrants

Today's Episode:  Trump Vs. Legal Immigrants.

So it seems that while the administration talks about wanting immigrants to "follow the rules," to become citizens, they seem to be changing the rules in order to hinder those that follow the rules, but take advantage of the social safety net while they are green card holders to gain citizenship.Working wouldn't be good enough, depending on whether the green card holder took advantage of public benefits that they qualified for.

This isn't official yet, but it is clear that even without these changes, fewer legal immigrants have been moving through the process (issuing green cards, or issuing actual citizenship), with the numbers down by 20% compared to the Obama administration.

Now, it could be that the previous administration was "too lax" on enforcing rules.  Hard to really tell.  But given the rhetoric from the administration and their supporters, I'm guessing that they are being much more stringent (i.e. heartless), seeing as we are talking about people that were fine with separating children from parents at the border, and not worrying about keeping families together through the process.

It would be nice to see an official explanation for the process the administration would want in place, so the citizenry could evaluate it.  But I doubt that's going to happen, and let's face it, even if it did, how many people would really take the time to learn what it all meant.

It does seem clear that it's time to change that little poem under the Statue of Liberty though...

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180806 - Confederate Memorials keep getting added to the list

Today's Episode:  More and more Confederate monuments

This is more of an update not particularly related to Trump himself.  He has been busy with other things lately, and this story has sort of fallen by the wayside.  Still, an update did appear, and it turns out the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) has a list of Confederate memorials nationwide, but that list continues to be updated.  It turns out that over the last year, 75 memorials have been renamed or removed from public places, but the list has increased by 237  in that time, so over 300 such memorials have been identified since then.  The fact is that such sites really aren't in a general sort of database, and they are scattered throughout the US.  The SPLC has been working on it, but I suspect that the word hasn't spread as far and wide as people might think.  This sort of thing takes time and effort, which of course translates to money, and the question of just how high this is on the list of things to do for people in general.  Because, while it did get a high profile spike in public consciousness, the more important thing was apparently the whole Alt Right and open racism on the march in America.  That protest group has gone to ground again, and may have lost steam when a lot of the Polo patrol was faced with the ugly reality that the real hard core are quite willing to kill if they think they are being supported.

As for the memorials themselves, it takes money to take them down or relocate them.  Local citizenry may not be keen to spend that money, prioritizing other projects for public funds.  Some of the monument are also not publicly owned, so private property rights are in play as well.  It's one thing for the city council to remove a statue from a public area, a whole other thing to try and get someone to remove a memorial from private property.

It seems unlikely that his story will get much in the way of national headlines again without some outsize event.  It MIGHT happen, and of course, depending on how serious it gets (and whether Klansmen and neo-nazis are involved again), it seems unlikely that this will get attention from the POTUS otherwise.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180805 - Okay, so the meeting with the Russians was about getting campaign "dirt"

Today's Episode - So it was about the campaign, not adoptions

So, today's big Tweet was:

Fake News reporting, a complete fabrication, that I am concerned about the meeting my wonderful son, Donald, had in Trump Tower. This was a meeting to get information on an opponent, totally legal and done all the time in politics - and it went nowhere. I did not know about it!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 5, 2018 

It has been reported that the POTUS has been concerned about Donald Jr. facing some trouble over his actions with regards to meetings with a lawyer who had connections to the Kremlin in order to acquire "dirt" on the Clinton (opposition) campaign.  Interestingly, Trump tries to defuse it by claiming that it both went nowhere, and that he didn't know about it.  IF he didn't know about it, how can he assess where it "went."  It also begs the question as to why the story was that said meeting (assuming that it was the same meeting I guess) was only about issues surrounding adoptions of Russian Children by U.S. citizens.  The POTUS initially publicly denied either helpiong, or outright dictating an explanation for the meeting declaring that it was only about the adoptions issue.  However, Trump's lawyers have acknowledged in a memo to Mueller that the POTUS had indeed dictated that statement.  Obstruction charges here seem quite possible.

The POTUS/Administration continues to make the case that no laws were broken, and that the investigation is basically a witch hunt, and they continue to make public declarations that the investigation is biased, and should be ended.  We'll see if Trump actually takes steps to make that a reality, since he does have that power, but if he does take that sort of action, will the Republican Congress be able to continue to play interference and keep Trump in place as POTUS?

Midterms are coming up.  I'm wondering if Mueller will make his report before the midterms, and if charges against Donald Jr. will be official before the midterms.  We shall see, but I'm thinking that at the very least we will see charges against Donald Jr. prior to the midterms.  We shall see...

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180804 - The Administration v Responsibility

Today's Episode- The Administration vs. Responsibility

It turns out that the government that separated children from their parents while processing their cases under a "zero tolerance" basis for illegal border crossing has done a poor job of reuniting about 500 families as of August 3rd, failing to meet a judge's deadline to reunite those families.

A judge got involved in the matter when the ACLU brought the case before the court, and the government presented the position that at this point the burden of reunification and locating and contacting families should be borne solely by the ACLU at this point.  I'm really not clear on the government's logic here, It seems to be a combination of claiming incompetence, and partly an admission of indifference bordering on a claim of the inability to understand the morality or legal issues from the perspective of the separated families, to the extent that they claim that the ACLU and related parties should be completely responsible for the difficult reunifications.  It's like they are saying they are evil, that they don't want to do it, and that if they are forced to do it, they will do a poor job of it.

The judge in the case (Judge Dana Sabraw) did not accept this argument on the part of the government, stating that "The government has the sole obligation and responsibility to make this happen," and that "For every parent not found will be a permanently orphaned child.  That will be 100 percent of the government's responsibility.  There has to be a plan so that does not happen."  Sabraw did add that the ACLU is to cooperate by establishing a lead counsel or steering committee, so that a plan to track down parents and advise them of their legal options for reunification at this stage of the process.

I just don't understand how this position was actually filed, although the fact that it could be filed at all, with really no repercussion does again highlight issues I have with the legal system in general.  A wrong has been done, the people/institution responsible for that wrong are identifiable, but those people/institution felt it was reasonable for them to shift their responsibility for the wrong to the people that are bringing that wrong to light, and seeking to address the problem.  The claim that the ACLU has greater resources in the matter rings hollow, unless the argument is that funding is specifically being withheld to address the situation, given that it is the administration that created the problem in the first place.  IF funding is being withheld, it seems that the persons withholding said funding should be held responsible, and potentially be held criminally responsible.  That doesn't appear to be even threatened at this point though.

It remains to be seen how this will unwind.  At least it isn't still happening, so there is that, but the fallout from the policy is ongoing, even if it isn't closely reported.  I suspect that there will be hundreds of orphans still separated without parents even being contacted a month from now but we shall see.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180803 - Trump's Shopping Delusion

Today's Episode:  Trump's Shopping Delusion

On the first, Trump was at a rally in Tampa, Florida, and he was talking about voter I.D., and he explained that:

"You know, if you go out and you want to buy groceries, you need a picture on a card, you need ID.  You go out and you want to buy anything, you need ID and you need your picture."

Apparently in the world Trump envisions, he won the popular vote, the crowds at his inauguration were the largest ever.  And grocery stores required photo ID for buying groceries.  Heck, you need some sort of photo ID to buy anything.  Kind of a weird police state I guess.

It's weird, and I think it's part of his psychological makeup to say things like that.  Pat of "Covfefe Syndrome," really, in that he'll just make stuff up.  The weirder part of Covfefe syndrome seems to be that there is a subset of the general population that is willing to ignore these weird comments, or accept them as true (I'm curious how Trump supporters, or people at that particular rally, would interpret Trump's statement).

I'm sure this particular comment will fade into the general background, and President's often make gaffes.  It's hard to tell for sure, but it really does seem that Trump makes them far more often though.  It would be nice if there was some sort of benchmark though.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180802 - Travel ban exceptions, no exception for you!

Today's Episode:  It's not a ban because there are exceptions, except there aren't.

Back when the Supremes decided that Trump could have his travel ban, one of the reasons it was allowed was that there is a process in place to get waivers.  Except as it turns out, apparently no waivers are being issued.

This isn't something that is getting much traction in the news right now, but there is a new lawsuit over this issue under way.  The lawsuit is Emami v Trump, and basically alleges that less than 2% of waivers are cleared, with 98% outright rejected, and of those that aren't outright rejected, the waivers aren't actually issued in any timely manner.

This will take some time to wind its way through the system, and it's one of the things about the "short attention span theatre," of the news cycle.  Of course, that's why I made a list here.  There is the "big news" out there, but there are plenty of things that were big news, that aren't really very resolved yet, or need to be re-visited so we can have a better understanding of just what is going on.  It seems that Trump's immigration policy is working out to be one that is pretty exclusionary of certain classes of people.  Where that line crosses into racist, or religious intolerance remains an open question to a lot of people (Trump does after all have plenty of supporters who are racist, but some of them, I'm sure, are good people).

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180801 - Trump Vs. Obstruction

Today's Episode:  Trump Vs. Obstruction

I'm really not sure what the legal requirements are for a charge of "obstruction of justice," may be, but publicly declaring an ongoing investigation by the Justice Department to be a politically motivated witch hunt, and calling for an end to said investigation when you are the POTUS.  Still, this does get a little weird, since there is a question as to what a government official can say as a Private Citizen, and what should be taken as being said with the authority (and potential menace) of an official government position.  It is certainly my impression that traditionally public officials seek to avoid commentary that may get close to that  line.  Trump however is not beholden to such traditions.  So apparently amongst Trump's tweets this morning was this one. 

This is a terrible situation and Attorney General Jeff Sessions should stop this Rigged Witch Hunt right now, before it continues to stain our country any further. Bob Mueller is totally conflicted, and his 17 Angry Democrats that are doing his dirty work are a disgrace to USA!

Giuliani later went on record as saying that this tweet was one where Trump was expressing his opinions, rather than giving specific directions to Sessions.

ABC is reporting that Trump got riled up because Mueller wants to ask Trump about obstruction of justice.  Trump has been claiming that there has been no collusion with Russia during his campaign, and even gone as far as saying that even if there were, collusion is not a crime.  He has made some denials about obstruction of justice in the past, but has also been on the record as saying he got rid of the head of the F.B.I. because the F.B.I. head was "crazy, a real nut job."  He added "I faced great pressure because of Russia.  That's taken off."  Those comments were made the day after the firing when Trump was meeting with Russian officials.

Giuliani has expressed that if Mueller wants to have an on the record interview with Trump, there can be no questions regarding obstruction of justice.

So, is declaring the investigation a witch hunt, and that Jeff Sessions should stop it an act of obstruction?  The fun part here is that it seems pretty clear that even if it is, there isn't going to be a criminal case, pretty much reinforcing the reality that the President is "above the law."  Nixon tried that defense himself, but back then it didn't look like it was going to fly, so he resigned.  Today though, well we shall see what the Mueller report says (assuming that the investigation isn't killed before a report is completed).

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180731

Today's Episode:  Trade War Collateral Damage!

So, the Trump administration has set aside $12 billion for farmers who are being affected by the trade war, but they aren't the only ones being impacted by the situation.  The question then becomes who else will the administration add to its new welfare rolls?
Now overall the economy does remain strong (while government borrowing is back to great recession levels), the stories of companies that are suffering because of the trade war are growing in number.  That shouldn't be much of  a surprise, and the farmer welfare program is a sign of the government picking specific groups to help out (the old picking winners and losers problem).

But here's a thought.  With the lack of specifics that surround the idea of the current trade situation, and what the goals are, what would happen if Trump managed to arrange for some high profile trade summit, have a closed door meeting, and then go to the a status quo ante bellum?  Maybe shuffle a few winners and losers for American industries, so it's not too transparent, and then declare that he's gotten a great new deal?  That he has managed the art of the deal so well, that things are great?

In the short term though, the question is going to be whether any other groups get some sort of bailout money, and if they do, who will they be?  And if the bailouts expand, will more attention get drawn to government borrowing?

My guess is that if the trade war does go on for the next few months, there will be more federal welfare recipients in the name of trade war collateral damage.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180730

Today's episode: Trump vs. Collusion

Lawyer speak can be hard to decipher sometimes, since lawyer's will often try to interpret words to fit a narrative that they want to be perceived as the "truth," or at least a reasonable explanation of existing evidence to exonerate their client.  So the word of the day now is "Collusion."  The quote I have seen isn't all that clear:

"Four months, they're not going to be colluding with Russia, which I don't even know if that's a crime, colluding about Russians," Giuliani, a former federal prosecutor, continued. "You start analyzing the crime -- the hacking is the crime. ... The President didn't hack."

Now there is more to the Mueller investigation than collusion, not that this is being mentioned much.  And the whole "collusion" word has been mentioned before.  Even James Comey has previously explained that collusion "is not actually a thing that exists under the federal laws of the United States."  But there are crimes that do exist that relate to assisting or getting some sort of gain from criminal endeavors against the U.S.  Things like getting foreign money would be a clear example.  Getting foreign intelligence would likely fit into the same category.

But the goal here is to get a story out there to exonerate Trump from the investigation in general, and collusion issues in particular.  Since the whole "collusion" term is kind of murky, and not really a legal term, it makes for a good target.  It's going to be interesting when Mueller actually lays out ihs case though, especially seeing as Trump is Mueller's boss's boss.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018

Trump Watch 20180729

Today's Episode:  Trump wants his wall!

Trumph apparently had a lot to tweet about this morning.    Apparently he woke up in a mood, and decided to let the American People know several things, one of which was:

I would be willing to “shut down” government if the Democrats do not give us the votes for Border Security, which includes the Wall! Must get rid of Lottery, Catch & Release etc. and finally go to system of Immigration based on MERIT! We need great people coming into our Country!


Trump has mentioned the shutdown threat before, and he may be getting antsy since the midterms may not work out very well for the Republicans.  Of course, a government shutdown may not help the Republicans in the midterms, and certainly the party doesn't seem to think that a shutdown would help them in the midterms.
Now there is a sort of "boy who cried wolf" sense on this, seeing as he has threatened this before. Still, since he is the POTUS, it can't be completely ignored.  But it seems unlikely that the Republicans are willing to have that kind of a fight before the elections. Of course, it could just be bombast to bring attention to the matter, his "art of the deal."  His tactics however don't seem to have very much subtlety to them.

I'd say the odds of a shutdown actually happening are in the neighborhood of 20%.  Not very likely, but certainly not impossible.  The odds of Trump getting the wall funded are much lower, maybe 5%..  I suspect that this particular story isn't going to have much in the way of legs for now, but it is an ongoing on, and I'm sure we'll hear more about the wall and immigration in general from Trump soon.

• Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
• FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure more to it than that at this point)
• North Korea
• The Space Force
• The Border Wall
• Alien Children Detention/family separation
• Presidential Pardons
• Civil War Monuments
• Muslim Travel Ban
• China Tariffs/Trade
• Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
• NAFTA
• Puerto Rico response
• Military Parade in Washington
• World Trade Organization
• Covfefe Syndrome
• NATO
• Russia/Putin relationship

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State

John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Scott Pruitt - EPA Director - Resigned 7-5-2018