Saturday, June 30, 2018

Trump Watch 20180630

Today on Trump Watch.  Does he even realize he is contradicting himself?

More analysis about the North Korea agreement keeps coming out, and it should be no surprise that it boils down to a view that not much substantive has changed apart from the rhetoric.

On the Alien Children detention, it has come out that there is a formal challenge to the twenty day rule, based on the wording of the ruling that says there should be no "unnecessary delay."  The challenge claims that extended detention is now "necessary."

An interesting fact check also appeared, regarding a bill that was voted on (and failed), where Trump now claims (on a tweet dated June 30th) he said they shouldn't bother to have voted, which contradicts a statement made 3 days ago (on June 27th)  This factoid opens up the interesting question of whether Trump's cognitive sense doesn't really keep track of what he says, or whether he is aware of his contradictions.  That also leads to the question of which scenario is better...


  • Stormy Daniels
  • Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
  • FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that at this point
  • North Korea
  • The Space Force
  • The Border Wall
  • Alien Children Detention/family separation
  • Presidential Pardons
  • Civil War Monuments
  • Muslim Travel Ban
  • China Tariffs/Trade
  • Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
  • NAFTA
  • Puerto Rico response
  • Military Parade in Washington



Survivor White House watch.  Nothing really new today.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.
Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary
Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th



Friday, June 29, 2018

Trump Watch 20180629


The story regarding North Korea continuing to advance their nuclear weapons program is gaining some more traction.  NBC News reported a source as saying "There is absolutely unequivocal evidence that they are trying to deceive the U.S."
Not that Trump is saying anything about that.

In other news, Trump is on record for wanting to lower the corporate tax rate further, from 21% to 20%.  On that front, the news seems to be agreeing that the tax savings have primarily gone to stock buybacks, which does drive the stock market up.

On the Alien Children Detention and separations, it is looking like the administration is considering going the extended detention route, but they haven't said that directly yet.  Court filings are apparently still to come, but nothing very official there.

Finally, while Trump continues to say that there is no plan for replacing his Chief of Staff John Kelly, but "Things Happen."


  • Stormy Daniels
  • Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
  • FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that at this point
  • North Korea
  • The Space Force
  • The Border Wall
  • Alien Children Detention/family separation
  • Presidential Pardons
  • Civil War Monuments
  • Muslim Travel Ban
  • China Tariffs/Trade
  • Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
  • NAFTA
  • Puerto Rico response
  • Military Parade in Washington



Survivor White House watch.  Nothing really new today.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - 6-29-2018  Trump says "Things Happen."
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.
Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary
Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th


Thursday, June 28, 2018

Trump Watch 20180628

The Super Elites!

Trump says a lot of stuff, and sometimes it sticks, although at his point a lot of it just fades into the background.  That's probably true for a lot of administrations and presidents for that matter, but when you start to really pay attention, and take notes, it becomes much more obvious.  As for trying to "connect" with the "working class," I'm not sure this is a very good way to do it.  Of course, I'm not sure he really wants to connect with the working class anyway.

"We got more money, we got more brains, we got better houses and apartments, we got nicer boats, we're smarter than they are and they say they're the elite,"  He went o to so "Let's call ourselves, from now on, the super elite."

There is an interesting insight here, a way this sort of thing could be turned into a way for Trump to be hoist by his own petard.  It's unlikely to happen of course, since it's the sort of tactic that takes some time to bear fruit, and it would certainly be difficult to allay the suspicion of such a trap.  But it does seem clear that Trump's ego is such that he sort of steps in it on his own, so managing to goad him further wouldn't take too much.

The New York Times cited an unnamed source, saying that Trump is considering John F. Kelly's replacement as Chief of Staff.  Trump and Kelly continue to deny any such plans.

There is some movement on the Parade idea, apparently at this point it looks like it may happen in November, but the report said that there really isn't much enthusiasm for such a parade.

July 16th has been announced as the date for Trump to meet face to face with Putin.  The whole election meddling thing remains weird though, Russia claims that they didn't meddle at all, and Trump keeps trying to deny that it happened, or at least minimize what may/did happen.



  • Stormy Daniels
  • Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
  • FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that at this point
  • North Korea
  • The Space Force
  • The Border Wall
  • Alien Children Detention/family separation
  • Presidential Pardons
  • Civil War Monuments
  • Muslim Travel Ban
  • China Tariffs/Trade
  • Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
  • NAFTA
  • Puerto Rico response
  • Military Parade in Washington



Survivor White House watch.  Nothing really new today.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff - Another unnamed source talks about him leaving 6-28-2018, reported by NY Times.
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.
Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary
Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th



Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Trump Watch 20180627


Trump was Right!

Turns out that when Trump told Congress that  "The existence and risk of proliferation of weapons-usable fissile material on the Korean Peninsula and the actions and policies of the Government of North Korea continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States," after his summit, he knew that North Korea wasn't really on course to denuclearize.

Not that anyone is really paying much attention, and the news today isn't all that spectacular on this front, but it is notable.  As it turns out, there are people that try to watch what North Korea is doing, building, and working on, and their analysis is that North Korea is continuing to work on upgrading nuclear testing and research facilities (specifically a place called the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center).  https://www.38north.org/2018/06/yongbyon062618/


This news/report doesn't bode well for those that felt that Trump did much when it came to getting North Korea to denuclearize, but right now people are focused on who Trump will nominate for the Supreme Court Justice slot opening up, the Red Hen question, and what is going on with children/families at the border.


  • Stormy Daniels
  • Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
  • FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that at this point
  • North Korea
  • The Space Force
  • The Border Wall
  • Alien Children Detention/family separation
  • Presidential Pardons
  • Civil War Monuments
  • Muslim Travel Ban
  • China Tariffs/Trade
  • Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
  • NAFTA
  • Puerto Rico response



Survivor White House watch.  Nothing really new today.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.
Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary
Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th


Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Trump Watch 20180626

Two items regarding the list

First, the Supreme Court ruled on the travel ban, and overturned lower court rulings that said the ban was unconstitutional.  It was a 5-4 decision.  Trump was claiming a victory, but at best it seems to have been a partial victory.  The court decided that persons without a "bona fide" connection to the United States could not be banned.  That would in effect mean that people with relatives, people doing research with a university, or with business ties to the United States could travel from the "banned" countries.  People with asylum cases could also travel from said countries.  The definition of a "bona fide connection" seems a little vague though.  From what I can tell, I'd say it's still a defeat for Trump's policy, but not a total defeat.  It does show that his policy was overly broad in the court's opinion.  This decision does make it clear that the President's powers do have limits when it comes to creating such a policy though.

The second item on Trump Watch today is that Harley Davidson announced that it was moving production overseas in response to Trump's tariffs on importation of foreign steel.  This is a sort of tricky headline, and it does mean a reduction in workforce in the U.S. in favor of workforce overseas.  Trump is angered by that announcement, although it really should be no surprise, the stuff Harley Davidson will make overseas isn't meant for the American Market, and if they can avoid tariffs that way, everything else being relatively equal (it probably isn't) it seems like a no brainer if they want to be more competitive in those markets.  Trump doesn't like the news though, because it points out how his tariffs are hurting American businesses, and Harley Davidson in particular was a business he named as one that he wanted to help out, because of the whole "American Made" mystique that they market.



  • Stormy Daniels
  • Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
  • FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that at this point
  • North Korea
  • The Space Force
  • The Border Wall
  • Alien Children Detention/family separation
  • Presidential Pardons
  • Civil War Monuments
  • Muslim Travel Ban
  • China Tariffs/Trade
  • Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
  • NAFTA
  • Puerto Rico response



Survivor White House watch.  Nothing really new today.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.
Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary
Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th


Monday, June 25, 2018

Trump Watch 20180625

Back on Friday, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, White House Press Secretary, was asked by the manager of the Red Hen restaurant in Lexington Virginia, to leave the restaurant because she works for the current administration.

That whole "We reserve the right to refuse service to anyone" sign that we see in places may not be completely enforceable, but refusing to serve based on politics is apparently legal.  I'm not familiar with this sort of thing happening so directly to such a highly placed political figure.  I've heard of this sort of thing happening at more local levels, politicians being ostracized, losing friends because they implemented policies that their local voters didn't like (even if there was apparently no good choice).  Now since this event occurred, there has been much ado building up about it.

My first reaction is to consider this a distraction from more important matters.  A restaurant asked Sarah Huckabee Sanders to leave because they didn't like her political actions so much, that they made an issue of it.  Sanders (and her dining companions) left without incident.  The police weren't called, and nos that the matter has become a matter of public record, people are upset, or they are cheering.  It appears that the side taken is based on political position, so I guess people that feel that service can be denied on religious grounds shouldn't have the ability to deny service based o political grounds.

But, since it is a story, it does bring up some questions.  First, is it fair to compare this to denial of service based on politics, or is this more specifically a denial of service based on specific actions that were taken?  Because SHS's celebrity is based specifically on her political position, either argument can be made but it seems pretty clear that the restaurant isn't trying to call out Republicans in general and deny them service.  If this was a case of seeking to deny service to Republicans in general, it certainly seems far less defensible.

However, if it is a decision based on her actions, actions that the proprietor find to be so distasteful that they would rather not serve that individual, is that acceptable?  Where is that line?  Who gets to decide where that line may be, and what a actions make that acceptable?

As an extreme example, we can consider the case of a man convicted of rape, who has been released (did his time), and goes to a service establishment owned by his victim.  It seems understandable, and even reasonable that said establishment would not want to serve that particular person.  Where the line is, and where the Law should step in regarding such behavior is tricky, particular when it comes to something like denying service to political figures, but it also seems important to note that political figures are for the most part not example of underprivileged individuals.  It can also be viewed as a "Truth to power" situation, where people who don't normally have the ability to really make their voices heard can do so.

Now given the passions that this administration inflames, there is another fundamental question here.  Is there a boiling point that this will reach where protests will reach the level of riots?  Do enough people think that the actions of this administration are so bad that such action is warranted?  Clearly we aren't there yet, but it seems pretty clear that some people are advocating that.  And to be fair, it's not like this administration hasn't advocated violence on the campaign trail, and some of their supporters seem eager for violence as well.




  • Stormy Daniels
  • Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
  • FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that at this point
  • North Korea
  • The Space Force
  • The Border Wall
  • Alien Children Detention/family separation
  • Presidential Pardons
  • Civil War Monuments
  • Muslim Travel Ban
  • China Tariffs/Trade
  • Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
  • NAFTA
  • Puerto Rico response



Survivor White House watch.  Nothing really new today.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.
Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary
Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th



Sunday, June 24, 2018

Trump watch 20180624

Today's Episode :  We need new laws to be lawful.

So, today's big Presidential Twitter Announcements has Trump advocating a new model of "Law." 

Apparently, while he was driving to go and play Golf at his Golf Course in Virginia, Trump explained his thinking regarding how immigration law should operate.

"We cannot allow all of these people to invade our Country.  When somebody comes in, we must immediately, with no Judges or Court Cases, bring them back where they came from.   Our system is a mockery to good immigration policy and Law and Order.  Most children come without parents."

"Our Immigration policy, laughed at all over the world, is very unfair to all of those people who have gone through the system legally and are waiting on line for years!  Immigration must be based on merit - we need people who will help to Make America Great Again!"

It is interesting to note that the idea of adding more judges so the process can be sped up has been proposed, specifically by Ted Cruz among others.  Trump's responded specifically to this idea on Tuesday, saying "I don't want judges.  I want border security.  I don't want to try people.  I don't want people coming in.  Do you know, if a person comes in and puts one foot on our ground, it's essentially 'Welcome to America, welcome to our country.'  You never get them out, because they take their name, they bring the name down, they file it, then they let the person go.  The say, 'Show back up to court in one year from now.'"

Apparently Trump doesn't understand that the LEGAL PROCESS (i.e. the LAW) involves a number of steps, and having more judges to address the cases could speed up the LEGAL process.  It's interesting that Trump doesn't even want a Kangaroo Court.  He wants a wall which is basically impenetrable so people can't cross the border on foot. If people manage to cross the border anyway, he wants I.C.E. to be able to send people back to their country, although I'm really not sure what mechanism he wants for that.  I'm also not very clear on what sort of legal process in the United States anyway has this sort of model.  If a law enforcement officer witnesses you committing a crime, they can cite you and send you on your way after giving you a ticket with a court date, or they can take you into custody to await your day in court.  Court involves judges, prosecutors, and defenders, as well as witnesses, and presentation of evidence.  It's not cheap though, and if you're top priority if cost rather than justice, well, it seems that Trump wants to set up the Mega City One system with himself as the Head Judge, and ICE officers as Street Judges, at least where it applies to immigration law.  Whether that's a model he would like to expand to other areas of law enforcement, your call on whether this is a slippery slope argument or not (assuming you are good with cutting out judges and hearings, and that sort of thing).




  • Stormy Daniels
  • Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
  • FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that at this point
  • North Korea
  • The Space Force
  • The Border Wall
  • Alien Children Detention/family separation
  • Presidential Pardons
  • Civil War Monuments
  • Muslim Travel Ban
  • China Tariffs/Trade
  • Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
  • NAFTA
  • Puerto Rico response



Survivor White House watch.  Nothing really new today.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.
Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary
Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th


Saturday, June 23, 2018

Epiphanies




6/23/2018

Occasionally, when you discuss stuff, you have insights into deeper truths.
Today, I was asked how I felt about the Thundercats reboot. Now I don't care much one way or the other about the Thundercats reboot, but it made me think about the old "Hollywood can't come up with new ideas" complaint that we always hear. Then I realized there's a money angle here. It has to do with Intellectual Property. Now somebody owns the IP for Thundercats (but seriously, you can fill that blank in with any series, and in the case of Thundercats the IP is owned by Warner Bros.) So, the company that holds the IP to the characters will either try to shop it around to someone to cash in on said IP, or if the company already owns the IP (like WB owns Thundercats now) they go over their IP catalog, see what they have that they can use without paying for creative development or such, and reboot that.
I'm not saying it's ALL about the money here, but I'm definitely saying that there is a cash incentive to revive old IP because it is cheaper than buying or developing NEW IP.

Trump Watch 20180623

Today is a Saturday, and it's a kind of slow day for Trump Watching.  I'd say that the interesting news views on the Trump Watch front was how Trump was claiming that the coverage regarding his North Korea summit bordered on "Treason," and then he later declared that:

"The existence and risk of proliferation of weapons-usable fissile material on the Korean Peninsula and the actions and policies of the Government of North Korea continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States."

That declaration was made as part of the paperwork required to keep sanctions on North Korea, and was part of a notice to Congress.

Here's a tricky part to this.  Should Trump be "given credit" for keeping the sanctions on North Korea since there really hasn't been any real movement towards denuclearization?  Or should this be viewed as more Trumpian duplicity? 



  • Stormy Daniels
  • Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
  • FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that at this point
  • North Korea
  • The Space Force
  • The Border Wall
  • Alien Children Detention/family separation
  • Presidential Pardons
  • Civil War Monuments
  • Muslim Travel Ban
  • China Tariffs/Trade
  • Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
  • NAFTA
  • Puerto Rico response



Survivor White House watch.  Nothing really new today.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.
Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary
Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Trump Watch 20180622


While I was driving today, I heard a live broadcast of an event Trump was hosting, called the "Angel Families" event.  The event was intended to highlight the reality of the damage that has been done to American Families because of illegal immigrants being in the country and committing crimes, specifically a group of families that have lost members in some way because of the actions of illegal immigrants (I don't know all the specifics, I did hear about a torture/rape murder, and a drunk driving incident).

Given the recent outrage over the separation of children from parents at the border, I found it a little jarring to hear about these incidents because it seemed that they were being used as justification for that policy, while I felt that the two, while related in some ways, are really very different issues.

And then a couple of things hit me.  First, was that while these stories are true, and important, they can be quite misleading.  There is a quote that I believe is attributed to Stalin, "The death of an individual is a tragedy, the death of a million is a statistic."

Nowadays, with so many varied outlets able to send out a message, there is a slightly different reality at play as well.  While personal stories can be more visceral, and thus persuasive, they can easily overstate a position as well.  What this boils down to is that people will dismiss those personal stories that go counter to their preferred narrative, while giving greater credence (listenability) to stories that support their preferred narrative.  I have heard the phrase "I don't want to hear about ____" where the blank gets filled in by stories that support a counter position to the one that is supported by the person that makes that statement.  This gets exacerbated by claims that such stories are lies, which in extreme cases (or apparently not so extreme cases) turns into conspiracy theory types of thinking.

There is a problem with trying to evaluate things at a national scale and separating that from a personal scale.  We aren't really designed for that, and evaluating data isn't anywhere near as impactful as a personal story.  That's really how we process, and how we experience things.

Kind of a side note, but also worth noting, it turns out that the picture of the crying child at the border was not an image of a child being separated from her mother (well, not really).  That particular child was returned to her mother, and hadn't been separated at the time (or since).  I'm not sure why not, but that picture became an icon for such separations, and Time cropped the child's image and juxtaposed it with a picture of Trump looking down at her, with the caption "Welcome to America."

That opens up the question of whether it is "fair" or "reasonable" to use that picture to represent the reality of family separations.  On the one hand, it is at best "artistic license" to use that image to represent a particular reality.  It certainly would be better if the image was a direct representation, but the goal was to "tell a story," and it conveys that story well.  On the other hand, it opens the image to be dismissed by people that don't want to listen to that narrative.  The question is where it pushes "undecideds" to I guess.  My question is how can undecideds be pushed to evaluating data, rather than being swayed by emotional appeals that seek to avoid in depth analysis.




  • Stormy Daniels
  • Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
  • FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that at this point
  • North Korea
  • The Space Force
  • The Border Wall
  • Alien Children Detention/family separation
  • Presidential Pardons
  • Civil War Monuments
  • Muslim Travel Ban
  • China Tariffs/Trade
  • Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
  • NAFTA
  • Puerto Rico response



Survivor White House watch.  Nothing really new today.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.
Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary
Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Thursday, June 21, 2018

Trump Watch 20180621

It appears that after signing an executive order that is supposed to stop children from being separated from their parents at the border, Trump is back to doing what he one of the few things he seems to actually like doing when it comes to politics.  He's out campaigning, speaking in front of his ardent supporters.  The kind of people that think the pictures of immigrant children that are separated from their families are fabricated by the "Fake News" that Trump is always complaining about, and belittling protesters that did interrupt his rally.

Trump did claim that he remains tough on the Border, and that "We are sending them the hell back."  At the same time, it is being reported that Border Patrol agents are "suspending" prosecutions of adults who are members of family units int ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) can accelerate resource capability to allow us to maintain custody.


Trump is pretty much on the record as being willing to make up information for the audience he is dealing with.  One might think that given the accessibility to information have today, that might undermine him, but it seems not to be that serious a problem for him, partly because there is access to so much made up information to support him, people can find sources that support the Trumpian world view.

There was a rare Melania Trump sighting/story.  Apparently the First Lady decided she had to go and see one of the child detention centers for herself.  There wasn't a lot of coverage of that visit though, and just what she was trying to accomplish



  • Stormy Daniels
  • Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
  • FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that at this point
  • North Korea
  • The Space Force
  • The Border Wall
  • Alien Children Detention/family separation
  • Presidential Pardons
  • Civil War Monuments
  • Muslim Travel Ban
  • China Tariffs/Trade
  • Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
  • NAFTA



Survivor White House watch.  Nothing really new today.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.
Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary
Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Trump Watch 20180620



Today on the Trump Show, Donald Trump signed an executive order that he claims will keep families that try to cross the border at non-designated locations together while they are being tried for criminal offenses.
Thing is, it doesn't.  Now, to be fair, the legal system has created a weird box for this problem.  Trump has pretty much exacerbated it though, and has complained about Democrat intransigence without managing to propose, or drum up support for any sort of solution.

The problem is that we have a refugee problem at the border.  We don't want to call them refugees, and that can depend on your definition of refugee I guess.  Their countries of origin are not in a state of war.  However, their situation in their country of origin is bad enough that they are willing to travel great distances to try and enter the United States illegally.  Now some of the problem could be that they don't even understand the legal process.  Part of it of course is that if they tried to do so using the legal process, they would never make it in.  The heart of the problem is the question of how many people you want to allow in, and who should get a priority?

Bottom line though, is that you have these people showing up at the border.  There are people that believe simply in open borders.  That's pretty much a minority.  There are people that believe we should have a wall, and not let people in at all.  A lot of those people are Trump's political base.  But even his political base has trouble with the messy reality that people do show up at the border, and there are definitely a lot who are there with a story that basically paints them as refugees.  When they come with children, it gets more difficult to turn them away, and since we don't have enough judges or facilities, and Trump doesn't want to allow more refugees into the country, the question becomes how do you process them?  "Prison," "Holding facility," Internment camp," whatever you want to call them, they want them to be cheap, and they want them to hold everyone.  Another problem though is that if they hold children too long, they run afoul of a court ruling (the Flores V. Reno ruling) that says they can't keep children in adult facilities for longer than 20 days.

Just how this gets implemented, and whether the Trump Administration can manage to get around the Flores V. Reno ruling remains to be seen.  Honestly, it remains to be seen if this changes much at all (the wording of the executive order is filled with a lot of "to the extent possible" sorts of comments, so it may turn out that "the extent possible" may not be very far, but I expect that this will be a situation that continues to be monitored, mainly because I think the Democrats smell blood here, and elections are coming up).

But wno knows?  What suprising or exciting twist or turn will come up on the next DAY of the TRUMP SHOW!


  • Stormy Daniels
  • Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
  • FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that at this point
  • North Korea
  • The Space Force
  • The Border Wall
  • Alien Children Detention/family separation
  • Presidential Pardons
  • Civil War Monuments
  • Muslim Travel Ban
  • China Tariffs/Trade
  • Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
  • NAFTA



Survivor White House watch.  Nothing really new today.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.
Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary
Joe Hagin - White House deputy Chief of Staff is resigning.- reported June 19th


Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Trump Watch 20180619

The zero tolerance border policy that has triggered the separation of families at the border because all illegal immigrants are being charged with crimes if they don't present themselves at a "point of entry" (even if they try for an asylum claim) continues to dominate the day's political news cycle.

Kirstjen Nielsen has kid of owned the situation (policy, directive, whatever you want to call it), and tried to deflect from the worst part of the situation by pointing out that in some cases the children involved aren't there with parents, but are basically caught up in child trafficking, or being used as leverage by non-parents to try to enter the U.S. (MS13 is the big boogeyman in this narrative).  Jeff Sessions had to field a question to explain how what is going on is different from what the Nazis did...

On a less uproarious note, apparently there is a plan to announce the U.S. withdrawal from the U.N. Human Rights Council.  The justification here is twofold.  First is that the Human Rights Council is perennially anti-Israel, and second is that there are many members who have pretty bad Human Rights records.

Unstated (you may see this as a cynical point of view), but given the Human Rights P.R. surrounding the separation of parents from children, it seems that the Council might try to chide the U.S. on this matter, so it would seem a good time to leave, and try to diminish the credit of the body before they do get around to making an issue of the treatment of these people.





  • Stormy Daniels
  • Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
  • FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that at this point
  • North Korea
  • The Space Force
  • The Border Wall
  • Alien Children Detention/family separation
  • Presidential Pardons
  • Civil War Monuments
  • Muslim Travel Ban
  • China Tariffs/Trade
  • Canada-G7 Tariffs/Trade
  • NAFTA



Survivor White House watch.  Nothing really new today.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.
Kirstjen Nielsen - Homeland Security Secretary

Monday, June 18, 2018

Trump Watch 20180618

Today's Episode:  The Space Force!

Trump has mentioned the Space Force before, so today he stated that

“I’m hereby directing the Department of Defense and Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a space force as the sixth branch of the armed forces. That’s a big statement. We are going to have the Air Force and we are going to have the Space Force, separate but equal.”

Trump did start out his speech talking about how the U.S. can not become a migrant holding facility.  The breaking up of families, and detention of children separately from their parents remains a politically charged new item, and he continues to seek to cast blame on the democratic party for the problem.  The rhetoric around the problem on both sides continues to ignore any potential for addressing the root problems, i.e. why are people so desperate on our southern border?

I'm going to make a list here of issues that embroil Trump and his administration.  This is off the top of my head, I suspect it will grow with time as I keep watch.


  • Stormy Daniels
  • Trump Charity lawsuit by New York Attorney General
  • FBI investigation (it keeps being called a Russian Collusion investigation, but I'm pretty sure there's more to it than that at this point
  • North Korea
  • The Space Force
  • The Border Wall
  • Alien Children Detention/family separation
  • Presidential Pardons
  • Civil War Monuments



Survivor White House watch.  Nothing really new today.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Sunday, June 17, 2018

Trump Watch 20180617

Another day, another report of Trump complaining about "Fake News."



Funny how the Fake News, in a coordinated effort with each other, likes to say I gave sooo much to North Korea because I “met.” That’s because that’s all they have to disparage! We got so much for peace in the world, & more is being added in finals. Even got our hostages/remains!

As is often the case with Trump Tweets, there really isn't a lot of detail.  Now there has certainly been news coverage that has been critical of the summit between Trump and Kim, particularly in light of the fact that Trump has canceled joint training exercises with the South Korean armed forces, along with a total lack of details with regards to what the denuclearization process for North Korea will entail, much less how it will be verified.

I'm not really that familiar with Trump's Twitter writing style.  Given Twitter's format, it's not a good means of relaying detail.  I don't think that coherence is really a priority though for Trump.  It would be nice if there was some reference to where people could find out the details that are considered important here, but that's not going to happen.  There will be some hand-waving about how details are being worked out at best, but this tweet sticks to the Trump style of belligerence and vilification, mixed in with personal aggrandizement.  In this case the "Fake News" is being critical, and Trump has done a great job.




Survivor White House watch.  Nothing really new today.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Saturday, June 16, 2018

Trump Watch 20180616


  • No big new stories from the great Trumpster Fire that is our current government.  I did come across an article which quoted Trump as saying:


"I may stand before you in six months and say, 'Hey, I was wrong.' I don't know that I'll ever admit that, but I'll find some kind of an excuse."

According to the article, that was basically his take on what could happen with regards to Kim Jong Un's promise to denuclearize. 


  • The DHS denies claims they took a baby away from a mother while the mother was breastfeeding.



  • Apparently some of the detainees who have been separated from their children are asylum seekers, not people that were caught trying to sneak into the country.  This is a distinction, in that there is no crime involved here, which gets even more interesting, since it apparently winds up going into a different court system.  There is some nuance to this analysis I guess, but even if this was about clearly criminal prosecution, I would say that separating parents from their children was indefensible, but there really doesn't seem any good way for this to be spun.  Trump continues to say that the separations are due to actions/laws passed by the Democratic party, and that only the Democratic Party can change those laws.



  • Giliani was speaking to the Trump Base, basically looking to "get out the vote" and saying that "Let's keep this seat Republican.  Let's stop the possibility of a ridiculous impeachment."




Survivor White House watch.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.

Friday, June 15, 2018

Trump Watch 20180615

So, it's a Friday today.  A few ongoing and new bits on today's Trump Watch.

The policy of separating illegal border crossers parents from children is the current hot topic.  It appears that this is essentially a by-product of of the "zero tolerance" policy with regards to illegal border crossing, so what happens is parents are charged with a crime and placed in a separate detention center from their children.  Trump has stated before, and continues to declare that this is a result of laws passed by the Democrats, and that any changes to the law(s) that cause this to happen have to be changed by the Democrats, apparently since Republicans are unable to write legislation on the matter, or that democrats would never pass legislation that Republicans wrote, or, well, because Trump says so.  Most sources that discuss the matter in any depth believe that this simply isn't true, and can find no law that mandates this sort of separation (although there is no law that prohibits it either).  It's also not clear to me what "zero tolerance" means though, it would seem to me that under a "zero tolerance" policy, children should be charged with the same crime as their parents.

Yesterday a report regarding actions of the F.B.I. during the election, with some emphasis on James Comey came out as well, and it did a few things, only one of which Trump cared much about.  There were some statements made by agents that were clearly anti-Trump, although from what I can tell, the report says that while such statements were made, they didn't affect the integrity of investigations.  Comey himself was said to have acted with insubordination based on how he made his announcements into the Clinton e-mail investigations, but found him to be unbiased when it came to Trump.  This one is the one that Trump has seized upon.  Finally, they also concluded that Comey's actions with regards to the Clinton e-mail investigations helped the Trump campaign (whether that tipped the election was not addressed, but then how could that finding be made?).

Trump commented on Scott Pruitt today, Pruitt has been embroiled in ethics questions regarding his actions while director at the EPA.  At this stage of things, Trump says he is "not happy with certain things," but that Pruitt's performance (i.e. rolling back many Obama-era regulations) "is very overriding."  Apparently finding someone that is ethical and would do that sort of work would be difficult for the administration.






Survivor White House watch.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary, rumors continue to be denied.
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor
Marc Short - White House Legislative Affairs Director - no denial of plans regarding his departure prior to the 2018 midterms.





Thursday, June 14, 2018

Trump Watch 20180614

So, today is Trump's Birthday

Back in the U.S.A., Donald is resting after his big summit. For his birthday, the New York attorney general filed a suit against President Trump alleging "persistently illegal conduct" at the presidents personal charity.

Trump chose to respond, as he is wont to do.  "The sleazy New York Democrats, and their now disgraced (and run out of town) A.G. Eric Schneiderman, are doing everything they can to sue me on a foundation that took in $18,800,000 and gave out to charity more money than it took in, $19,200,000. I won’t settle this case!" Trump wrote on Twitter.

Is it a big deal that the POTUS and his family are being sued by the state of New York?  Apparently it's just another day in the world of Trump. 






Survivor White House watch.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Today we got a report from The Wall Street Journal that White House legislative affairs director Marc Short is planning on leaving ahead of the 2018 midterms.  "When the Journal asked Short for comment, he replied, "There are so many leaks in this building.""


Nothing new on Sarah Sanders.




Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Trump Watch 20180613


So, the big summit is over, and a kind of flimsy document was signed.  However, Trump has decided to suspend training drills with South Korea, It turns out that decision was not made with the South Koreans (or the Japanese) being aware of such a decision.  Apparently a unilateral approach to these sorts of things is how Trump thinks such things should be done, and that does fit with his style.  He likes to do what he wants to do, and doesn't seem to like building consensus.  That's a very "businessman" way of doing things, but it comes with repercussions when that model is applied to geopolitics.

There is a sort of 1984 sense of things here though, particularly with Trump's statements.  Apparently this meeting convinced Trump that Kim Jong Un "loves his people," which is quite a turnaround from Trump's comments from his state of the union in January of this year, where he said, "no regime has oppressed its own citizens more totally or brutally than the cruel dictatorship in North Korea."

It hasn't gone as far as declaring North Korea an ally, and I'm not naive enough to believe this is the first time an American President has embraced a brutal dictator, but it seems that this embrace is based more on Trump's personal political needs and aspirations rather than the overall best interests of the United States, or even some sort of clear gain (oil regimes come to mind here).  There is hope for some gain here, but there's not even a roadmap, and it seems that scrutiny over this deal is starting to make some cracks in even the Trump base.

Survivor White House watch.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Reports today indicate that Sarah Huckabee Sanders is planning to leave at the end of the year.  Nothing official yet, and there have been reports that there will probably be an exodus after the midterms, but today CBS reported this, although Sarah Sanders put out a tweet to contradict the story.

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Trump Watch 20180612

June 12, 2018

So today on Trump House, the meeting with North Korea was completed, and really was much ado about not much.  A letter was signed, not a peace treaty.  Heck, a peace treaty wasn't even announced.

It did seem odd, but on reflection, very Trump.  He got to have a party, most eyes were on him, and while the meeting elevates Kim Jong Un as well, there was not much change in the status quo.  From what I can tell, there was some de-escalation on the United States' side, which may have been a return gesture for the recent declaration of no more missile testing by North Korea, and is hopefully a move that was cleared with South Korea, who also seems to have been seeking to improve relations with North Korea.

But the declaration that did come out from the meeting was basically a bit of fluff, with no real agreement regarding sanctions, or steps towards verifying de-nuclearization.  If this statement had been signed without a meeting having occurred, it would have been seen as a minor step towards a meaningful resolution.  There is a lot more work to be done for this to be meaningful, and who knows, maybe this is a productive way to deal with this particular dictator.

Giving Kim Jong Un some prestige and kind words may not be a bad thing if it leads to real improvements, but this was not a meeting to finalize some major success, or even start some real work.  This was a photo op that got to draw attention to itself, while apparently seeking to distract from the deterioration in relations with the G7.

Survivor White House watch.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Monday, June 11, 2018

Trump Watch 20180611

June 11, 2018

Whether you are pro or anti Trump, Today is fairly historic, with the first face to face meeting with the POTUS and the leader of North Korea.  With Trump fresh off what to all accounts seems to have been a pretty unproductive G7 meeting (I guess it depends on what you define as productive, but the United States didn't sign off on anything from the G7 meeting, so clearly Trump didn't get enough of what he wanted from the meeting).

An argument can be made that the meeting happening at all is progress, and given the heated rhetoric that was bouncing back and forth between Trump and Kim Jong Un, a meeting is a step up, the real question is just what the heck the meeting hopes to accomplish.

When this meeting was announced, I didn't expect it to actually happen.  I would have bet that it wouldn't happen, but it has happened.  Just what will come of it remains to be seen.  There is a question as to whether this is even a good thing, since there really doesn't seem to be any movement when it comes to Human Rights in North Korea.

To be fair, the United States is not a stranger to dealing with dictators, but we'll see if any actual movement on that front is made, but even if it isn't, there is an open question as to whether that is of secondary importance to North Korea's nuclear weapons.

I don't expect this meeting to be terribly productive, but I was wrong about it even happening, so we'll see what happens.



Survivor White House watch.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary
Mike Pompeo - Secretary of State
John Bolton - National Security Advisor

Sunday, June 10, 2018

Trump Watch 20180610

June 10, 2018

So, today the big news on the Trump show was that Trump went to he G7 meeting, left early (before they talked about Climate and women's rights), and Trump apparently decided not to support/sign a joint statement that he had backed earlier in the day.  His reasoning was that Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister of Canada publicly criticized Trump/s trade policy.

I'm not sure what the "joint statement" said, but it's not like Trump talked about the content of the statement, nor did the articles I saw.  There was a lot of speculation that Trump didn't like what Trudeau had said after the meeting was over, and withheld support to avoid "looking weak" prior to his meeting in Singapore on the 12th with the dictator of North Korea,  Kim Jong Un.


Survivor White House watch.

Giuliani still there as Lawyer
John F. Kelly still there as Chief of Staff
Jeff Sessions still there as Attorney General
Sarah Huckabee Sanders still there as Press Secretary

Trump is not Hitler.

A lot of comparisons have been made between the Trump Campaign, and Trump's successful political campaign, and Hitler's rise to power.  But while some of these comparison's are fairly legitimate, Trump is NOT a Hitler, and the United States is not the same sort of country that Germany was in the 1930's.

First off, Trump was pretty clearly a draft dodger.  Hitler enlisted to fight in World War I, and was awarded the Iron Cross Second Class, and the Iron  Cross First Class during the war.  Hitler had been wounded in battle at least once.  As an aside, that little mustache of his was apparently common for soldiers, because a fuller mustache made wearing a gas mask more difficult.  Hitler had served as a "runner" which basically meant he was a dude that ran from command locations to field locations with messages.  Odds are good that Hitler, like pretty much anyone that served in the German Army in WWI, had killed me, and had known many comrades who were killed in action.  Trump on the other hand believes that going to a military academy is like being in the military

Another big one here is that Hitler pretty much stayed on message during his political career.  There was clearly a core message and idea that Hitler made central to his political career.  Trump on the other hand is pretty much all over the map on things.  The whole "build a wall" business is fairly recent, and he stuck with it because it resonated with his voters.  The "Crooked Hillary" business was another fan favorite for Trump voters, but while there was plenty of chanting "Lock Her Up," it seems pretty clear now that Trump is in power, he's not going to pursue any legal action against the Clintons.  It will be interesting to see what happens with the "Wall" and Mexico paying for it.  My prediction, fwiw, is that there may be some progress in something like a wall, and Mexico paying for it will be spun from some sort of minor taxation scheme, but I don't know that he can push that sort of thing through, I expect an attempt to tax money transfers to Mexico (i.e. remittances).

Bottom line is that Hitler had it tough, and Trump was a rich kid whose parents couldn't handle him, so they sent him to boarding school / a military academy.  Hitler had been imprisoned when he led a failed coup, and he came back from that.Hitler didn't have a ghost writer, he wrote his manifesto (Mein Kampf).  The closest thing Trump has to a manifesto is "The Art of the Deal," which was ghost written for him (by a guy named Tony Schwartz).

As for America today being like Germany in the 30's, that comparison is even tougher to make.  Yes, there are racists and bigots in America, but Germany was pretty homogeneous in the 30's, and it was easier to target a minority group for the Germans.  For all of the "angry, uneducated white men," rhetoric, the fact is that anger isn't well focused against anyone.  Yes, there is anti-semitism.  Islamophobia is a little newer, but it has come to the fore since 9/11.  Anti-Mexican sentiment is tossed in there as well.  What's interesting, and different about that is that there isn't a real focus on any particular group, and certainly not by a majority of citizens.  I doubt that even a majority of Trump voters have any real visceral bigotry.  There is a sense of resentment, and it is probably focused most on "elites," basically the banking and political class, and then trickling to media types, particularly celebrities who may be talented, and certainly have an audience, but who far too often seem to think that they have the duty to scold people that disagree with them,. and paint them with a pretty broad brush, generally calling them intolerant and stupid.  Unfortunately, there do seem to be a pretty vocal segment of Trump supporters that are in fact basically angry bigots.  Fortunately, that isn't the hart of the matter though.  It's not like this is an either or proposition.  It's also  not like the media can control the message the way it did in the 30's and 40's.  Opposition to a fascist totalitarian state can get its message out, and while there will be those that ignore that message, and underlying truths about it, the sort of atrocities that happened under Hitler seem highly unlikely.  Of course, the sort of atrocities that happened under Roosevelt are probably still on the table, and that's not good either.  But it's not like people are talking about Trump being like Roosevelt.