The recent events in Egypt and Libya highlight how foreign policy has failed the common man in the Middle East. Now that popular uprisings have taken the fore again (this isn't a new thing in the Middle East), trying to understand what is going on is important. And what it ISN'T, is an uprising of Muslim extremism, and so far it seems that we have managed to avoid that perception.
That isn't to say that Muslim Extremism will not manage to actually take control over time. Part of that probably depends on what you call Muslim Extremism.
Now I don't know if you consider Pakistan as an extremist Muslim country, but they are moving to implement the death penalty for criticizing the Muslim Faith, and the sole Christian Member of the Pakistani cabinet was assassinated for opposing that law. Pakistan is considered one of our chief allies as I understand it, so just who is it we are supporting in the Middle East?
Now this isn't just about the United States, but the rest of the world, although I think it's instructive to look at the Western World in particular. And the fact is that the Western World (including the United States) has been either actively or passively supporting despots who are willing to keep the oil flowing at the expense of their populace while enriching themselves and their inner circle. Expressions of support for the "will of the people" are clearly going to ring at least a little hollow when the tear gas that is being used on the protesters is stamped "Made in the U.S.A." Or of course, when the jets that are being flown to strafe rebels/insurgents/freedom fighters are made in France.
And even if the insurgents/rebels/freedom fighters win, there is already an infrastructure there that benefits foreigners when it comes to their most important national resource, and I do mean Oil. Should the old order fall, should the contracts that the old order entered into remain in force? Is the balance of payments fair to the Middle East when you look at the standard of living they have is? If the graft was directed towards the populace (let's assume that the Ghaddaffi regime has managed to siphon off 13 billion dollars, just for illustrative purposes), how much would that money have affected the general population. Libya's population is around 6.5 million people, so if we simply spread that money out to each Libyan, they would get around $2,000.00 today (or if we say that the 13 billion was stolen over 10 years) each Libyan would have gotten $200 a year for the last ten years.
If the average Libyan aspires to a lifestyle that is even half as expensive as the American lifestyle, how much is their Oil worth? This is a scenario that repeats itself over and over in oil producing nations, and when democracy has reached the stage that the Oil policies could trend in that direction (look closely at the history of Iran), the forces of democracy get toppled by foreign forces, a strongman is put in place, and then an uprising follows, which can get upstaged by fundamentalist Islamic forces. And the reason for that is that when it comes to the point that folks need to use guns to topple the strongman, fighters who have a religious fervor for their cause fight really, really hard. And if they succeed, well, the spoils of victory and all that.
It didn't take that sort of fighting in Egypt, so Islamic Fundamentalists didn't get to shine all that much, so the people power isn't likely to give them a lot of credit for the victory. I don't hear a lot of talk about the religious fundamentalists being involved in Libya, but I'm certainly not going to be surprised if they do become major players there.
At least Libya's contribution to the global oil supply isn't really crucial, but don't be surprised when they really don't consider anybody their allies, even if they do ask for help. The middle east may see betrayal as just the way things are done, but they have learned that from the West.
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